Visayas Power Shortages May Continue Through 2027 as New Plants Await Completion

Electricity supply shortages in the Visayas could persist through 2027 as the government seeks temporary power sources to stabilize the grid while awaiting the completion of new generation projects expected to come online in 2028.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin outlined the region’s supply challenges during the Energy Summit 2026 in Cebu on Monday, Oct. 12, warning that planned power projects would not be completed soon enough to meet rapidly increasing demand.

“Andiyan na, parating ’yung solusyon, pero late na siya, it will be a 2028 (The solution is coming, but it will be late; it will be in 2028),” Garin said.

The delay leaves the region vulnerable to power shortages as electricity consumption continues to rise while additional generation capacity remains limited. Since 2019, the Visayas has seen little growth in new generating capacity, according to the report presented at the summit.

National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) official Emelindo Bugaoisan Jr. said electricity demand in the Visayas had increased by 106 percent, from approximately 1,241 megawatts in 2009 to 2,779 megawatts in 2026.

Cebu accounts for 42 percent of the region’s electricity demand, followed by Panay at 21 percent, Negros at 18 percent and Bohol at 13 percent.

The growing gap between supply and consumption has contributed to grid instability. Red alerts, which signal critically low power reserves and can lead to rotational blackouts, began occurring in May following months of yellow alerts.

The supply problems were attributed to outages at major coal-fired power plants, reduced generation output and limited electricity imports from Luzon and Mindanao.

About 22.44 percent of the Visayas’ total generating capacity is currently unavailable because of maintenance, forced outages and reduced plant output, according to the figures presented.

Although the Visayas is connected to other island grids, the region cannot depend on importing large amounts of electricity at once without risking further instability.

Bugaoisan warned that the grid could be severely affected if the full capacity of its 440-megawatt interconnection with Luzon were suddenly lost.

“We cannot afford to lose 440 megawatts at a time, because if that happens, it would rather deteriorate, it would even result into a massive, probably blackout,” he said.

Temporary power sources eyed

To help address the supply gap before new plants begin operating, the Department of Energy (DOE) is considering deploying 300 megawatts of power barges and 250 megawatts of battery energy storage systems during 2026 and 2027.

Power barges are floating, diesel-powered generating facilities that can be deployed where additional electricity is needed. Battery energy storage systems, meanwhile, store electricity for release during peak demand or when generating units become unavailable.

Garin said these measures would not eliminate all red alerts but could help reduce the risk and severity of outages, particularly during summer when electricity demand rises and during periods of El Niño.

She also called on NGCP to accelerate assessments and connections needed for battery installations and improvements to transmission links between the islands.

“Paki-assess na lang ng NGCP, ‘yung connection ng Luzon, Leyte, Leyte to Cebu. Bakit pina-announce ‘yan? Kasi hindi ako pinapakinggan eh. Kaya announce ko para kayo naman humingi sa kanila,” she said.

(Please have NGCP assess the connections from Luzon to Leyte and from Leyte to Cebu. Why did I announce this? Because I am not being heard, so I announced it so you could also ask them.)

Garin had expected the battery installations to be ready as early as June. Following her public appeal to speed up the projects and assess the transmission connections, NGCP declined to comment to the media.

Long-term energy security plan

Beyond temporary interventions, the DOE is developing a Visayas master plan intended to strengthen the power supply of individual island clusters by 2031.

The plan seeks to ensure that Cebu, Negros and Panay have sufficient generating capacity to meet more of their own electricity requirements, reducing their dependence on power transmitted through submarine cables from other islands.

Under the proposed approach, interconnections would primarily serve as backup links for exchanging excess electricity rather than as the main source of supply.

For Cebu and Bohol, the DOE expects an additional 150 megawatts of baseload capacity and 470 megawatts of renewable energy to come online in 2028.

Therma Visayas Inc. is also targeting a 150-megawatt expansion of its power plant in Toledo City in the same year.

For Negros and Panay, the government is considering approximately 500 megawatts of natural gas-fired capacity and as much as 600 megawatts of coal-fired generation.

Natural gas power plants typically require about five years to build, partly because of global supply chain constraints affecting gas turbines.

El Niño and rising demand add pressure

The region’s power outlook is further complicated by the effects of extreme weather and increasing electricity consumption.

Garin warned that El Niño could reduce hydropower generation by 40 percent and solar power output by 20 percent.

Hotter conditions could also drive up electricity use as households and businesses rely more heavily on air-conditioning and other cooling equipment.

Cebu’s annual electricity demand is growing by 14 percent, more than twice the national average of 6 percent, according to the figures presented at the summit.

The pressure on existing coal-fired plants could also contribute to equipment failures and maintenance problems, further reducing the amount of electricity available to the grid. Heavy operating demands can increase the risk of breakdowns, including boiler leaks.

In response to repeated generation failures, the DOE is enforcing a “three-strikes” policy that could result in the suspension or blacklisting of power companies whose facilities repeatedly fail to deliver electricity.

The government is also encouraging households and businesses to conserve power while additional capacity is being developed.

Measures such as switching off unused lights and unplugging appliances that consume electricity while on standby could help reduce demand. The report estimated that such efforts could lower regional consumption by 10 to 20 percent.

With new generation projects still several years away, the combination of temporary power sources, improved transmission connections, stricter oversight of generating companies and electricity conservation is expected to play a key role in managing the Visayas’ supply challenges through 2027.